3rd wave will be ‘ripple’ in absence of faster spreading mutant: IIT study




The third wave of COVID-19 will be a “ripple” but only if there is no significantly faster-spreading mutant, according to projections of the ‘Sutra’ model for COVID-19.


According to the Sutra analysis, if there is a faster-spreading mutant, the magnitude of the third wave will be “comparable to the first one.”





Maninder Agarwal, Professor, IIT Kanpur, who was part of the team of scientists behind the Sutra analysis, said that they have created three scenarios.


“The third wave will be a ripple. If there is no significantly faster-spreading mutant, the third wave will be a ripple if there is such a mutant, the third wave will be comparable to the first one,” he said.


“The optimistic one – where we assume that life goes back to normal by August, there is no new mutant. Second the intermediate one – where we assume that vaccination is 20 per cent less effective in addition to optimistic scenario assumptions. Third pessimistic one – This has an assumption different from the intermediate one: a new 25 per cent more infectious mutant spreads in August,” he added.


As per the Sutra model, if there is an immunity escape mutant, all the above scenarios will be invalid.


Speaking further, the IIT Kanpur professor said, “First, loss of immunity in the recovered population, second vaccination-induced immunity. Each of these two needs to be estimated for future. And third, how to incorporate the two in the model.

(Only the headline picture of this report may have been reworked by the Business Standard staff; the rest of the content is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

Dear Reader,

Business Standard has always strived hard to provide up-to-date information commentary on developments that are of interest to you have wider political economic implications for the country the world. Your encouragement constant feedback on how to improve our offering have only made our resolve commitment to these ideals stronger. Even during these difficult times arising out of Covid-19, we continue to remain committed to keeping you informed updated with credible news, authoritative views incisive commentary on topical issues of relevance.

We, however, have a request.

As we battle the economic impact of the pandemic, we need your support even more, so that we can continue to offer you more quality content. Our subscription model has seen an encouraging response from many of you, who have subscribed to our online content. More subscription to our online content can only help us achieve the goals of offering you even better more relevant content. We believe in free, fair credible journalism. Your support through more subscriptions can help us practise the journalism to which we are committed.

Support quality journalism subscribe to Business Standard.

Digital Editor



Source link